Staff profile

Kevin Dowd is professor of finance and economics at the Department of Finance at Durham University Business School. He joined Durham in 2012 and previously worked at the Universities of Nottingham and Sheffield, Sheffield Hallam University and the Ontario Economic Council in Toronto.

He has external affiliations with the Adam Smith Institute, the Cato Institute, the Institute of Economic Affairs, the Independent Institute and the Taxpayers’ Alliance.

• Private money, free banking, financial regulation and central banking;
• Monetary and macroeconomics;
• Financial risk management; and
• Pensions, mortality and longevity risk.
• His current research focuses on option pricing, equity release, free banking and central bank digital currencies.

Authored book

• Dowd, K. The Experience of Free Banking, 2nd edition. (2nd Edition). Institute of Economic Affairs
• Buckner, D., & Dowd, K. (2022). Can UK Banks Pass the Covid-19 Stress Test?. KSP Books
• Buckner, D., & Dowd, K. (2022). The Eumaeus Guide to Equity Release Valuation: Restating the Case for a Market Consistent Approach. (2nd ed.). KSP Books
• Dowd, K. (2019). No Stress IV: The Flaws in the Bank of England's 2018 Stress Tests. Adam Smith Institute
• Cochrane, J., & Dowd, K. (2019). What a Capital Idea! How to Make Britain's Banks More Competitive, Innovative, and Safer. Adam Smith Institute
• Dowd, K. (2018). Asleep at the Wheel: The Prudential Regulation Authority and the Equity Release Sector. Adam Smith Institute
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2010). Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. Wiley
• Dowd, K. (2009). Lessons from the Financial Crisis: A Libertarian Perspective. Libertarian Alliance, Online
• Dowd, K. (2008). Measuring Market Risk. (2nd). John Wiley and Sons
• Dowd, K. (2005). Measuring Market Risk. (2nd). John Wiley and Sons
• Dowd, K. (2002). An Introduction to Market Risk Measurement. (August). John Wiley and Sons
• Dowd, K. (2000). Money and the Market: Essays on Free Banking. Routledge
• Dowd, K. (1998). Beyond Value at Risk: The New Science of Risk Management. (March). John Wiley and Sons
• Dowd, K. (1996). Competition and Finance: A Reinterpretation of Financial and Monetary Economics. MacMillan Press
• Dowd, K. (1993). Laissez-Faire Banking. Routledge
• Dowd, K. (1989). The State and the Monetary System. Phillip Allan Publishers, St Martin's Press
• Dowd, K. (1988). Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability. Institute of Economic Affairs

Chapter in book

• Dowd, K. (2022). Central Bank Activism: Good Intentions, Bad Policy. In J. A. Dorn (Ed.), Populism and the Future of the Fed (255-270). Cato Institute
• Dowd, K. (2017). Selginian Free Banking: A Comment on George Selgin’s Lecture. In Financial Stability without Central Banks (37-48). Institute of Economic Affairs
• Dowd, K. (2015). Contemporary Private Monetary Systems. In L. H. White, V. Vanberg, & E. A. Kohler (Eds.), Renewing the Search for a Monetary Constitution: Reforming Government’s Role in the Monetary System (213-253). Cato Institute
• Down, K. (2015). Free Banking. In P. Boettke, & C. Coyne (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Austrian Economics. Oxford University Press
• Dowd, K. (2012). Model Risk. In F. Fabozzi (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Financial Models. Wiley: Hoboken, NJ
• Dowd, K. (2010). Value-at-Risk. In R. Cont (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance (1863-1866). (1). Wiley
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2010). Reawakening the Inflation Monster: US Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve. In R. Kolb (Ed.), Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Insights and Analysis from Today's Leading Minds (475-481). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118266588.ch59
• Dowd, K., & Blanco, C. (2009). Efficient VaR: Using Past Forecast Performance to Generate Improved VaR Forecasts. In G. Gregoriou (Ed.), The VaR Implementation Handbook: Financial Risk and its Applications in Asset Management, Measurement and Modeling (25-39). (01). McGraw-Hill
• Aragones, J., Blanco, C., & Dowd, K. (2009). Stress Tests, Market Risk Measures and Extremes: Bringing Stress Tests to the Forefront of Market Risk Management. In D. Rosch, & H. Scheule (Eds.), Stress Testing for Financial Institutions: Applications, Regulations and Techniques (17-33). Risk Books
• Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2009). Quantile-based tail risk estimation for equity portfolios. In G. Gregoriou (Ed.), The VaR Modelling Handbook: Practical Applications in Alternative INvesting, Banking, Insurance and Portfolio Management (297-313). (01). McGraw-Hill
• Dowd, K. (2008). Back-Testing Market Risk Models. In F. Fabozzi (Ed.), Handbook of Finance (93-99). Wiley: Hoboken, NJ. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470404324
• Dowd, K. (2008). Default Risk. In E. Melnick, & B. Everitt (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment and Analysis (476-481). John Wiley and Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470061596
• Dowd, K. (2008). A Moments-based Procedure for Evaluating Risk Forecasting Models. In G. Christodoulakis, & S. Satcchell (Eds.), Analytics of Risk Model Validation (45-59). Elsevier
• Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2008). Securitization/Life. In E. Melnick, & B. Everitt (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment (1623-1627). John Wiley and Sons
• Dowd, K. (2006). Forecasting Inflation: The Inflation "Fan Charts". In K. A. Matthews, & P. Booth (Eds.), Isues in Monetary Policy: The Relationship between Money and Financial Markets (80-93). John Wiley and Sons, Chichester
• Dowd, K. (2006). Value-at-Risk. In J. Teugelsl, & B. Sundt (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science (1740-1748). John Wiley and Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470012505.tav004
• Dowd, K. (2002). Time Inconsistency. In B. A. Snowdon, & H. Vane (Eds.), An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics (699-703). Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
• Dowd, K. (2002). Gold Standard. In B. A. Snowdon, & H. Vane (Eds.), An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics (293-296). Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
• Dowd, K. (2000). The "Compensated Dollar" Revisited. In K. Dowd (Ed.), Money and the Market: Essays on Free Banking (104-113). Routledge
• Dowd, K., & Hinchliffe, J. (2000). Patemalism Fails Again - The Story of the Financial Services Act. In K. Dowd (Ed.), Money and the Market: Essays on Free Banking (167-182). Routledge
• Dowd, K. (1999). The Invisible Hand and the Evolution of the Monetary System. In J. Smithin (Ed.), What is Money? (139-156). Routledge
• Dowd, K. T., & Jr, R. (1998). The Misguided Drive Toward European Monetary Union. In Money and the Nation State: The Financial Revolution, Government and the World Monetary System. Transaction Publishers
• Chappell, D., & Dowd, K. (1997). Is Convertibility on Demand Always Optimal?. In P. Topsacalian (Ed.), Contemporary Developments in Finance (167-174). ESKA
• Dowd, K. (1997). Option Clause. In D. Glasner (Ed.), Business Cycles and Depressions. An Encyclopedia (501-2). Garland Pulbishers, New York
• Dowd, K. (1995). Money and Banking: The American Experience. In G. E. D. Foundation (Ed.), Money and Banking: The American Experience (1-29). George Mason University Press
• Dowd, K. (1994). Free Banking. In P. Boettke (Ed.), The Elgar Companion to Austrian Economics (408-413). Edward Elgar Publishing
• Dowd, K. (1994). Free Banking. In A. Mullineux, & V. Murinde (Eds.), Handbook of International Banking (173-190). Edward Elgar Publishing
• Dowd, K. (1992). Stopping Inflation. In Honest Money (13-22). (21). Australian Institute for Public Policy. Perth, WA
• Dowd, K. (1992). US Banking in the Free Banking Period. In K. Dowd (Ed.), The Experience of Free Banking (206-240). Routledge
• Dowd, K. (1992). Free Banking in Australia. In K. Dowd (Ed.), The Experience of Free Banking (48-78). Routledge
• Dowd, K. (1991). The Evolution of Central Banking in England, 1821-1890. In F. Capie, & G. Wood (Eds.), Unregulated Banking: Order or Chaos? (24-28). Macmillan

Edited book

• Dowd, K. T., & Jr., R. (Eds.). (1998). Money and the Nation State: The Financial Revolution, Government and the World Monetary System. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, NJ
• Dowd, K. (Ed.). (1992). The Experience of Free Banking. Routledge
• Dowd, K., & Lewis, M. (Eds.). (1992). Current Issues in Monetary Theory and Policy. Macmillan

Journal Article

• Dowd, K. (online). How to End European Inflation: A Proposal to Deal with the Controversy Surrounding British Membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS
• Dowd, K. (online). Math Gone Mad: Regulatory Risk Modeling by the Federal Reserve
• Dowd, K. (online). Central Bank Activism: Good Intentions, Bad Policy. The Cato journal,
• Dowd, K., Hutchinson, M., Ashby, S., & Hinchliffe, J. (online). Capital Inadequacies: The Dismal Failure of the Basel System of Bank Capital Regulation
• Dowd, K. (online). Eruopean Monetary Reform: The Pitfalls of Central Planning
• Dowd, K., & Cronin, D. (online). Fiscal Fan Charts - A Tool for Assessing Member States'(Likely?)Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules
• Cairns, A., Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Coughlan, G. (online). Longevity Hedge Effectiveness: A Decomposition. Discussion paper _ Birkbeck College. Pensions Institute,
• Dowd, K. (online). Free Banking
• Buckner, D., Dowd, K., & Hulley, H. (2024). How suitable are equity release mortgages as investments for pension funds?. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 49(2), 259-269. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-024-00316-1
• Dowd, K. (2024). So far, Central Bank Digital Currencies have failed. Economic Affairs, 44(1), 71-94. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12621
• Buckner, D., Dowd, K., & Hulley, H. (2024). Arbitrage problems with reflected geometric Brownian motion. Finance and Stochastics, 28(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-023-00525-x
• Buckner, D., Dowd, K., & Hulley, H. (2023). A market consistent approach to the valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages. Journal of Demographic Economics, 89(3), 349-372. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2023.6
• Cairns, A. J., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G. D., Jones, O., & Rowney, J. (2022). A General Framework for Analysing the Mortality Experience of a Large Portfolio of Lives: With an Application to the UK Universities Superannuation Scheme. European Actuarial Journal, 12(1), 381-415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-022-00309-1
• Dowd, K., & Blake, D. (2022). Good Practice Principles in Modelling Defined Contribution Pension Plans. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(3), Article 108. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15030108
• Dowd, K., & Blake, D. (2022). Projecting Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age with the CBDX Model. Forecasting, 4(1), 208-218. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010012
• Buckner, D., & Dowd, K. (2022). Discounting the Discounted Projection Approach. North American Actuarial Journal, 26(4), 521-536. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2021.1916537
• Dowd, K., & Buckner, D. (2021). On the Profitability of Equity Release Mortgage Loans. African Journal of Estate and Property Management,
• Hutchinson, M., & Dowd, K. (2021). The Economic Policies of Lord Liverpool. The Cato journal, 41(3), 711-727. https://doi.org/10.36009/cj.41.3.12
• Buckner, D., & Dowd, K. (2020). How Profitable are Equity Release Mortgages?. Economics Letters, 197, Article 109651. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109651
• Dowd, K., Cairns, A., & Blake, D. (2020). CBDX: A Workhorse Mortality Model from the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Family. Annals of Actuarial Science, 14(2), 445-460. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1748499520000159
• Dowd, K. (2020). Are CoCo Bonds Suitable as Core Capital Instruments?. Journal of New Finance, 1(1), https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1000
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., Buckner, D., & Fry, J. (2019). The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages. Economics Letters, 184, Article 108669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108669
• Dowd, K. (2019). The war on cash is about much more than cash. Economic Affairs, 39(3), 391-399. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12377
• Cairns, A., Kallestrup, M., Rosenskjold, C., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2019). Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in Mortality Using a New Affluence Index. ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 49(3), 555-590. https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2019.14
• Dowd, K., Cairns, A., & Blake, D. (2019). Hedging Annuity Risks with the Age-Period-Cohort Two-Population Gravity Model. North American Actuarial Journal, 25(sup1), S170-S181. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2019.1652102
• Blake, D., Cairns, A., Dowd, K., & Other, A. (2019). Still living with mortality: the longevity risk transfer market after one decade. British Actuarial Journal, 24, Article e1. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321718000314
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2018). The apotheosis of the rentier: how Napoleonic war finance kickstarted the industrial revolution. The Cato journal, 38(3), 255-278
• Dowd, K. (2018). Against Helicopter Money. The Cato journal, 38(1), 147-169
• Dowd, K. (2018). Frank Decker On Unstable Free Banking And The Stable Competitive Issue Of Irredeemable Currency: Comment. Economic Affairs, 38(1), 139-140. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12272
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2017). From Excess Stimulus to Monetary Mayhem. The Cato journal, 37(2), 303-328
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., Dowd, K., & Kessler, A. (2016). Phantoms never die: living with unreliable population data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 179(4), 975-1005. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12159
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Cairns, A. (2016). The Myth of Methusalah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts. Risks, 4(3), Article 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks4030021
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2016). Learning the Right Lessons from the Financial Crisis. The Cato journal, 36(2), 393-413
• Blake, D., Cairns, A., Coughlan, G., Dowd, K., & MacMinn, R. (2016). Le nouveau marché du risque de longévité. https://doi.org/10.3917/ecofi.122.0129
• Dowd, K. (2015). Central Bank Stress Tests: Mad, Bad, and Dangerous. The Cato journal, 35(3), 507-524
• Mozumder, S., Sorwar, G., & Dowd, K. (2015). Revisiting variance gamma pricing: An application to S&P500 index options. International Journal of Financial Engineering, 02(02), Article 1550022. https://doi.org/10.1142/s242478631550022x
• Down, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2015). Bitcoin Will Bite the Dust. The Cato journal, 35(2), 357-382
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2014). How Should the Financial System be Regulated?. The Cato journal, 34(2), 353-388
• Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G. D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2013). The New Life Market. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 80(3), 501-558. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2012.01514.x
• Cairns, A., Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Coughlan, G. (2013). Longevity hedge effectiveness : a decomposition. Quantitative Finance, 14(2), 217-235. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2012.748986
• Mozumder, S., Sorwar, G., & Dowd, K. (2013). Option Pricing Under Non-Normality: A Comparative Analysis. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 40(2), 273-292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-011-0271-y
• Dowd, K. (2013). Moral Hazard and the Financial Crisis. The Cato journal, 29(1), 141-166
• Learmonth, M., Lockett, A., & Dowd, K. (2012). Promoting Scholarship that Matters: The Uselessness of Useful Research and the Usefulness of Useless Research. British Journal of Management, 23(1), 35-44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8551.2011.00754.x
• Dowd, K., Kerr, G., & Hutchinson, M. (2012). The Coming Fiat Money Cataclysm and the Case for Gold. The Cato journal, 32(2), 363-388
• Dowd, K., Cotter, J., & Loh, L. (2011). U.S. Core Inflation: a Wavelet Analysis. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 15(4), 513-536. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100510000179
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2011). U.S. Decapitalization, Easy Money and Asset Price Cycles. The Cato journal, 31(3), 505-519
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Mortality Density Forecasts: An Analysis of Six Stochastic Mortality Models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(3), 355-367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2010.12.005
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Khalaf-Allah, M., & Coughlan, G. (2011). A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations. North American Actuarial Journal, 15(2), 334-356. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2011.10597624
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Cairns, J. (2011). A Computationally Efficient Algorithm For Estimating The Distribution Of Future Annuity Values Under Interest-Rate and Longevity Risks. North American Actuarial Journal, 15(2), 237-247. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2011.10597619
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Bayesian Stochastic Mortality Modelling for Two Populations. ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 41(1), 29-59. https://doi.org/10.2143/ast.41.1.2084385
• Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2011). Extreme global equity market risk. Journal of derivatives & hedge funds, 17(4), 312-325. https://doi.org/10.1057/jdhf.2011.14
• Dowd, K., & Hutchinson, M. (2011). Easy Money and the Decapitalization of America
• Coughlan, G., Khalaf-Allah, M., Ye, Y., Kumar, S., Cairns, A., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2011). Longevity Hedging 101: A Framework for the Longevity Basis Risk Analysis and Hedge Effectiveness. North American Actuarial Journal, 15(2), 150-176. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2011.10597615
• Dowd, K. (2011). The End of a Monetary Phenomenon
• Morgan, W., Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2011). Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63(1), 65-82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2011.00322.x
• Sorwar, G., & Dowd, K. (2010). Estimating Financial Risk Measures for Options. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8), 1982-1992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.01.005
• Dawson, P., Dowd, K., Cairns, A., & Blake, D. (2010). Survivor Derivatives: A Consistent Pricing Framework. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(3), 579-596. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2010.01356.x
• Dowd, K., Cairns, A., Blake, D., Coughlan, D., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2010). Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models: An Ex-Post Evaluation of Multi-Period-Ahead Density Forecasts. North American Actuarial Journal, 14(3), 281-298. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2010.10597592
• Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2010). Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Exchange Market Transactions. International Review of Economics and Finance, 19(2), 287-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2009.08.003
• Dowd, K. (2010). Using Order Statistics to Estimate Confidence Intervals for Quantile-based Risk Measures. The journal of derivatives, 17(3), 9-14. https://doi.org/10.3905/jod.2010.17.3.009
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Cairns, A. (2010). Facing up to Uncertain Life Expectancy: The Longevity Fan Charts. Demography, 47(1), 67-78. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0083
• Dowd, K., Cairns, A., Blake, D., Coughlan, G., Epstein, D., & Khalaf-Allah, M. (2010). Evaluating the Goodness of Fit of Stochastic Mortality Models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 47(3), 255-273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2010.06.006
• Dawson, P., Dowd, K., Cairns, A., & Blake, D. (2009). Options on Normal Underlyings with an Application to the Pricing of Survivor Swaptions. Journal of Futures Markets, 29(8), 757-774. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.20378
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G., Epstein, D., Ong, A., & Balevich, I. (2009). A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data from England and Wales and the United States. North American Actuarial Journal, 13(1), 1-35
• Blake, B., Cairns, A., & Dowd, K. (2009). Designing a Defined Contribution Plan: What to Learn from Aircraft Designers. Financial Analysts Journal, 65(1), 37-42. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v65.n1.7
• Woods, M., Humphrey, C., Dowd, K., & Liu, Y. (2009). Crunch Time for Bank Audits? Questions of Practice and the Scope for Dialogue. Managerial Auditing Journal, 24(2), 114-134. https://doi.org/10.1108/02686900910924545
• Blake, D., Cairns, A., & Dowd, K. (2008). The Birth of the Life Market. Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 3(1), 6-36. https://doi.org/10.2202/1793-2157.1027
• Woods, M., Dowd, K., & Humphrey, C. (2008). Market Risk Reporting by the World's Top Banks: Evidence on the Diversity of Reporting Practice and the Implications for Accounting Harmonisation. Revista de Contabilidad, 11(2), 9-42
• Blake, D., Dowd, K., & Cairns, A. (2008). Longevity Risk and the Grim Reaper's Toxic Tail: The Survivor Fan Charts. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42, 1062-1068
• Dowd, K., Bartlett, D., Chaplin, M., Kelliher, P., & O'Brien, C. (2008). Risk Management in the UK Insurance Indusry: The Changing State of Practice. International Journal of Financial Services Management, 3(1), 5-23. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfsm.2008.016696
• Woods, M., Dowd, K., & Humphrey, C. (2008). The Value of Risk Reporting: A Critical Analysis of Value-at-Risk Disclosures in the Banking Sector. International Journal of Financial Services Management, 3(1), 45-64. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfsm.2008.016698
• Dowd, K. (2008). Copulas in Macroeconomics
• Dowd, K., Cotter, J., & Sorwar, G. (2008). Spectral Risk Measures: Properties and Limitations. Journal of Financial Services Research, 34(1), 61-75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-008-0035-6
• Dowd, K., Cotter, J., Humphrey, C., & Woods, M. (2008). How Unlucky is 25-Sigma?. Journal of portfolio management, 34(4), 76-80. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2008.709984
• Dowd, K. (2008). The Swedish Inflation Fan Charts: An Evaluation of the Riksbank's Inflation Density Forecasts. Journal of Risk Model Validation, 2(1), 73-87
• Dowd, K. (2008). The GDP Fan Charts: An Empirical Evaluation. National Institute Economic Review, 203(1), 59-67. https://doi.org/10.1177/00279501082030010801
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2008). Modelling and Management of Mortality Risk: A Review. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2008(2-3), 79-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461230802173608
• Dowd, K. (2008). It's Time to Abolish Risk-Based Regulation
• Dowd, K., & Cotter, J. (2007). Exponential Spectral Risk Measures. The ICFAI Journal of Financial Economics,
• Dowd, K., & Oliver, P. (2007). Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Volatility Processes: A (Partial) Rehabilitation of the Square-Root Rule. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 5, 51-60
• Byrne, A., Blake, D., Cairns, A., & Dowd, K. (2007). Default Funds in UK Defined Contribution Pension Plans. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 63(4), 40-51
• Dowd, K. (2007). Backtesting the RPIX Inflation Fan Charts. Journal of Risk Model Validation, 1(3), 1-19
• Dowd, K. (2007). Temporal Dependence in Multi-Step Density Forecasting Models. Journal of Risk Model Validation, 1(1), 1-20
• (In)credibility of the UK Inflation Fan Charts. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(1), 91-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.04.003
• Blake, D., Cairns, A., & Dowd, K. (2007). The Impact of Occupation and Gender on Pensions from Defined Contribution Plans. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 32(October), 458-482. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.gpp.2510141
• Dowd, K. (2007). Validating Multiple-Period Density Forecasting Models. Journal of Forecasting, 26(4), 251-270. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1025
• Blake, D., Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2007). Financial Risks and the Pension Protection Fund: Can it survive them?. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.pm.5950054
• Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2007). The Tail Risks of FX Return Distributions: A Comparison of the Returns Associated with Limit Orders and Market Orders. Finance Research Letters, 4(3), 146-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2007.05.002%2C
• Blake, D., Cairns, A., Dowd, K., & MacMinn, R. (2006). Longevity Bonds: Financial Engineering, Valuation, and Hedging. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(4), 647-672. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00193.x
• Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2006). A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(4), 687-718. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00195.x
• Dowd, K., Cairns, A. J., & Blake, D. (2006). Mortality-dependent financial risk measures. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 38(3), 427-440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2005.11.003
• Cairns, A. J. G., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2006). Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk. ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 36(1), 79-120. https://doi.org/10.2143/ast.36.1.2014145
• Blake, D., Cairns, A. J. G., & Dowd, K. (2006). Living with Mortality: Longevity Bonds and Other Mortality-Linked Securities. British Actuarial Journal, 12(1), 153-197. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700004736
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., Cairns, A. J. G., & Dawson, P. (2006). Survivor Swaps. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00163.x
• Dowd, K., & Blake, D. (2006). After VaR: The Theory, Estimation and Insurance Applications of Quantile-based Risk Measures. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(2), 193-228. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00171.x
• Dowd, K. (2006). FOMC Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Non-Parametric Analysis. International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 3(2), 1-8
• Dowd, K. (2006). Backtesting Risk Models within a Standard Normality Framework. Journal of Risk, 9(2), 93-111
• Cotter, J., & Dowd, K. (2006). Extreme Spectral Risk Measures: An Application to Futures Clearinghouse Margin Requirements. Journal of Banking and Finance, 30(12), 3469-3485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.01.008%2C
• Dowd, K. (2006). Using Order Statistics to Estimate Confidence Intervals for Probabilistic Risk Measures. The journal of derivatives, 14(2), 77-81. https://doi.org/10.3905/jod.2006.667552
• Cairns, A., Blake, D., Dawson, P., & Dowd, K. (2005). Pricing Risk on Longevity Bonds. Life & Pensions, 1(2), 41-44
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Cairns, A. (2005). PensionMetrics: Designing Defined-Contribution Pension Schemes. Risk, 18(5), Article 81-82
• Dowd, K. (2005). Copulas and Coherence: Portfolio Analysis in a Non-Normal World. Journal of portfolio management, 32(1), 123-127. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2005.599516
• Dowd, K., Blake, D., & Cairns, A. (2004). Long-term Value at Risk. Journal of Risk Finance, 5(2), 52-57. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb022986
• Dowd, K. (2004). A Modified Berkowitz Back-test
• Dowd, K. (2004). Rejoinder to Huang. Journal of portfolio management, 30(3),
• Blake, D., John George Cairns, A., & Dowd, K. (2003). Pensionmetrics II: Stochastic pension plan design during the distribution phase. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 33, 29-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6687%2803%2900141-0
• Dowd, K. (2003). Survivor Bonds: A Comment on Blake and Burrows. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 70(2), 339-348. https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6975.00063
• Chappell, D., & Dowd, K. (2002). The Optimal Extraction of a Privately Owned Renewable Resource. The Mathematical Scientist, 27(2), 75-79
• Dowd, K. (2002). Assessing the Pre-Commitment Approach to Bank Capital Regulation. Journal of Risk Finance, 3(4), 35-40
• Dowd, K. (2002). A Bootstrap Back-test
• Blake, D., Cairns, A. J., & Dowd, K. (2001). Pensionmetrics: stochastic pension plan design and value-at-risk during the accumulation phase. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 29(2), 187-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-6687%2801%2900082-8
• Chappell, D., & Dowd, K. (2001). The Optimal Monopolistic Extraction of a Durable Natural Resource. Greek Economic Review, 21(1), 53-61
• Dowd, K. (2001). Estimating VaR with Order Statistics. The journal of derivatives, 8(3), 23-30. https://doi.org/10.3905/jod.2001.319154
• Dowd, K. (2001). The Emergence of Fiat Money: A Reconsideration
• Cronin, D., & Dowd, K. (2001). Does Monetary Policy have a Future?
• Dowd, K. (2001). Estimating the Failure Probabilities of Financial Institutions: A Simple Approach. Journal of Risk Finance, 2(4), 33-38. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb043473
• Dowd, K. (2000). Bank Capital Adequacy versus Deposit Insurance. Journal of Financial Services Research, 17(1), 7-15. https://doi.org/10.1023/a%3A1008149106536
• Dowd, D. A., & Harrison, B. (2000). The Gibson Paradox and the Gold Standard: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1821-1913. Applied Economics Letters, 7(11), 711-713. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048500421322
• Dowd, K. (2000). Accounting for Value at Risk. Journal of Risk Finance, 2(1), 51-58. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb022946
• Doed, K. (2000). Estimating Value-at-Risk: A Subjective Approach. Journal of Risk Finance, 1(4), 43-46. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb043454
• Dowd, K. (2000). Adjusting for Risk: An Improved Sharpe Ratio. International Review of Economics and Finance, 9(3), 209-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1059-0560%2800%2900063-0
• Dowd, K. (2000). Are Free Markets the Cause of Financial Instability?. Critical Review, 14(1,200), 57-67. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810008443547
• Dowd, K. (2000). Using Futures Prices to Control Inflation: Reply to Garrison and White. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(1), 142-145. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601096
• Dowd, K. (1999). Financial Risk Management. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(4), 65-71. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v55.n4.2286
• Dowd, K. (1999). Too Big to Fail? Long-Term Capital Management and the Federal Reserve
• Dowd, K. (1999). Does Asymmetric Information Justify Bank Capital Adequacy Regulation
• Dowd, K. (1999). A VAR Approach to Risk-Return Analysis. Journal of portfolio management, 25(4), 60-67. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1999.319755
• Dowd, K., & Hinchliffe, J. (1999). A Free Retail Investment Market?. Economic Affairs, 19(2), 45-47
• Dowd, K. (1999). An Almost Ideal Monetary Rule
• Dowd, K., & Hinchliffe, J. (1998). Independence - No Way!
• Dowd, K. (1998). Monetary Policy in the 21st Century: An Impossible Task
• Dowd, K. (1998). Free Banking More Relevant than Ever
• Chappell, D., & Dowd, K. (1997). A Simple Model of the Gold Standard. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 94-105. https://doi.org/10.2307/2953688
• Dowd, K. (1997). The regulation of bank capital adequacy. Advances in Austrian economics, 4, 95-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1529-2134%2897%2904007-6
• Dowd, K. (1996). The Case for Financial Laissez-Faire. The Economic Journal, 106(436), 679-687
• Dowd, K. (1996). The Analytics of Bimetallism. Manchester School, 64(3), 281-297. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1996.tb00486.x
• Dowd, K. (1996). Should the Bank of England be Abolished?
• Dowd, K. (1996). Some Unpleasant Budgetary Arithmetic of a Proposal to End Inflation A Reply. The Economic Journal, 106(436), 635-636. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235569
• Dowd, K. (1995). The Mechanics of Indirect Convertibility. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(1), 67-88
• Dowd, K. (1995). Central Bank Independence and Inflation: An Alternative View
• Dowd, K. (1995). A Rule to Stabilize the Price Level
• Dowd, K. (1995). Deflating the Productivity Norm. Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(4), 717-732. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704%2895%2980091-3
• Dowd, K. (1995). The Damage Inflation Does
• Dowd, K. (1994). An Imperfect Union: the Maastsricht Treaty Could Not Deceive the Markets
• Dowd, K. (1994). The Political Economy of Central Banking. Critical Review, 8(1), 49-60. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913819408443323
• Baker, S., & Dowd, K. (1994). The New Zealand Monetary Policy Experiment: A Preliminary Assessment. World Economy, 17(6), 855-867
• Dowd, K. (1994). Competitive Banking Bankers' Clubs and Bank Regulation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26(2), 289-308. https://doi.org/10.2307/2077910
• Dowd, K. (1994). The Costs of Inflation and Disinflation
• Dowd, K., & Sampson, A. (1993). A New Model of the Gold Standard. Canadian Journal of Economics, 26(2), 380-391. https://doi.org/10.2307/135915
• Dowd, K. (1993). Re-examining the Case for Government Deposit Insurance. Southern Economic Journal, 59(3), 363-370
• Dowd, K., & Greenaway, D. (1993). A Single Currency for Europe?
• Dowd, K., & Greenaway, D. (1993). Currency Competition, Network Externalities and Switching Costs: Towards an Alternative View of Optimal Currency Areas. The Economic Journal, 103(420), 1180-1189. https://doi.org/10.2307/2234244
• Dowd, K., & Sampson, A. (1993). The Gold Standard, Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Stock. Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4), 653-659. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0164-0704%2805%2980003-5
• Dowd, K. (1993). Deposit Insurance: A Skeptical View
• Dowd, K. (1993). Money and the Market: What Role for Government?
• Dowd, K. (1993). A Reply to Schnadt and Whittaker. Southern Economic Journal, 60(2), 501-504
• Dowd, K. (1992). Is Banking a Natural Monopoly?. Kyklos, 45(3), 379-392
• Dowd, K. (1992). The Demand for Non-Durable Goods and Endogenous Labour Supply. Applied Economics, 24, 1199-1202. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849200000129
• Dowd, K. (1992). Models of Banking Instability: A Partial Review of the Literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 6(2), 107-132. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.1992.tb00147
• Dowd, K. (1992). Consumer Demand, "Full Income", and Real Wages. Empirical Economics, 17(3), 333-345. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01206297
• Dowd, K. (1992). The Monetary Economics of Henry Meulen. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24, 173-183. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992734
• Dowd, K. (1991). Sechrest on Scottish Free Banking
• Dowd, K. (1991). Evaluating the Hard Ecu. World Economy, 14(2), 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.1991.tb00497.x
• Dowd, K. (1991). Financial Instability in a "Directly Convertible" Gold Standard. Southern Economic Journal, 57, 719-726
• Dowd, K. (1991). Option Clauses and Banknote Suspension
• Dowd, K. (1991). A Note on the Demand for Non-Durable Goods. Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(3), 543-551. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704%2891%2990010-r
• Dowd, K. (1991). Which Way for Euro-Money Reform?. Economic Affairs, 11(5), 29-31. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0270.1991.tb00816.x
• Dowd, K. (1990). The Value of Time and the Transactions Demand for Money. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 22(5), 599-603. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992127
• Dowd, K. (1990). The Value of Time Hypothesis and the Demand for Money: Some Evidence for the UK. Applied Economics, 22(5), 599-603. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849000000093
• Dowd, K. (1990). Did Central Banks Evolve Naturally? A Review Essay of Charles Goodhart's The Evolution of Central Banks. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 37(1), 96-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1990.tb00575.x
• Dowd, K. (1990). A European Central Bank?
• Dowd, K. (1990). The Case for Free Banking. Economic Affairs, 10(6), 15-17
• Dowd, K. (1990). Ending Australia's Inflation : Th Need for Radical Monetary Reform
• Dowd, K. (1990). Does Europe Need a Federal Reserve System?
• Chappell, D. A., & Dowd, K. (1989). A Simple Model of Macroeconomic Policy. Economic Modelling, 6(4), 447-451. https://doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993%2889%2990020-5
• Chrystal, K. A., & Dowd, K. (1989). Disaggregate Supply: Evidence for the UK. Applied Economics, 21(10), 1397-1409. https://doi.org/10.1080/758522332
• Kaufman, G. (., & Dowd, K. (1989). Some Lessons from the Recent Canadian Bank Failures
• Dowd, K. (1989). The Case Against a European Central Bank. World Economy, 12(3), 361-372. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.1989.tb00786.x
• Dowd, K. (1988). Option Clauses and the Stability of a Laisser Faire Monetary System. Journal of Financial Services Research, 1(4), 319-333
• Dowd, K. (1988). Automatic Stabilizing Mechanisms Under Free Banking
• Chrystal, K. A., & Dowd, K. (1987). Would a Higher Fiscal Deficit Stimulate the Economy?. Fiscal Studies: The Journal of Applied Public Economics, 8(1), 17-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.1987.tb00431.x

Newspaper/Magazine Article

• Alexander, J., Beenstock, M., Booth, P., Butler, E., Congdon, T., Copeland, L., Dowd, K., Greenwood, J., Gregg, S., Kay, J., Llewellyn, D., Morrison, A., Myddelton, D., & Wood, G. (2009). The Government's Second Bail-Out is a Poor Way Government Failure Caused the Financial Crisis to Save the Banking System
• Dowd, K. (2009). The Government's Second Bail-Out is a Poor Way to Save the Banking System
• Dowd, K., Lilico, A., Greenwood, J., Jeffrey, R., Lea, R., Williams, T., Allington, N., Booth, P., Congdon, T., Copeland, L., Matthews, K., Morrison, A., Peacock, A., Pennington, M., Smith, D., & Spencer, P. (2008). Keynesian Over-spending Won't Rescue the Economy
• Blake, D., Cairns, A., & Dowd, K. (2008). One day Pensions Will Be Properly Planned
• Dowd, K. (2007). Northern Rock Managers like Captain of Titanic
• Dowd, K. (2007). Better to Have Thrown Northern Rock to the Wolves

Report

• Dowd, K. No Stress: The Flaws in the Bank of England’s Stress Testing Programme. [No known commissioning body]
• Dowd, K. Killing the Cash Cow: Why Andy Haldane is Wrong about Demonetisation. [No known commissioning body]
• Dowd, K. No Stress II: The Flaws in the Bank of England’s Stress Testing Programme. [No known commissioning body]
• Dowd, K. (2017). A Simple Proposal to Recapitalize the U.S. Banking System
• Dowd, K. (2017). No Stress III: The Flaws in the Bank of England's 2016 Stress Tests. [No known commissioning body]
• Dowd, K. (2017). A Trade Policy for a Brexited Britain. Institute of Economic Affairs
• Harrison, D., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2014). VfM: Assessing value for money in defined contribution default funds. [No known commissioning body]
• Dowd, K. (2014). New Private Monies: A Bit-Part Player?. [No known commissioning body]
• Harrison, D., Blake, D., & Dowd, K. (2012). Caveat Venditor: The Brave New World of Auto-Enrolment should be Governed by the Principle of Seller not Buyer Beware. Pensions Institute
• Woods, M., & Dowd, K. (2008). Financial Risk Management for Management Accountants. [No known commissioning body]
• Dowd, K. (2001). Sharpe Thinking. ‘Risk’ Risk Management for Investors Special Report
• Dowd, K. (1998). VAR by Increments. 'Risk’ Special Report on Enterprise-Wide Risk Management