Staff profile
Overview
https://apps.dur.ac.uk/biography/image/4249
Affiliation | Telephone |
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Professor in the Department of Mathematical Sciences | |
Fellow of the Durham Research Methods Centre | |
Associate Fellow in the Institute of Advanced Study |
Research interests
- Bayesian statistics
- Expert knowledge elicitation
- Robust analyses
- Uncertainty communication
- Uncertainty quantification
Publications
Chapter in book
- SHELF: the Sheffield elicitation frameworkGosling, J. P. (2018). SHELF: the Sheffield elicitation framework. In Elicitation (pp. 61-93). Springer, Cham.
Doctoral Thesis
- Elicitation: a nonparametric viewGosling, J. P. (2005). Elicitation: a nonparametric view [Thesis]. University of Sheffield.
Journal Article
- AddiVortes: (Bayesian) Additive Voronoi TessellationsStone, A. J., & Gosling, J. P. (2024). AddiVortes: (Bayesian) Additive Voronoi Tessellations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2024.2414104
- A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian AnalysesVernon, I., & Gosling, J. (2023). A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses. Bayesian Analysis, 18(4), 1367-1399. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1340
- Enhancing the Measurement of Sentence Severity through Expert Knowledge ElicitationPina-Sanchez, J., & Gosling, J. P. (2022). Enhancing the Measurement of Sentence Severity through Expert Knowledge Elicitation. Journal of Legal Research Methodology, 2(1), 26-45. https://doi.org/10.19164/jlrm.v2i1.1241
- Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHeffield ELicitation Framework extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case studyHolzhauer, B., Hampson, L. V., Gosling, J. P., Bornkamp, B., Kahn, J., Lange, M. R., Luo, W.-L., Brindicci, C., Lawrence, D., Ballerstedt, S., & others. (2022). Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHeffield ELicitation Framework extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case study. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 21(5), 1005-1021. https://doi.org/10.1002/pst.2212
- Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellationsPope, C. A., Gosling, J. P., Barber, S., Johnson, J. S., Yamaguchi, T., Feingold, G., & Blackwell, P. G. (2021). Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellations. Technometrics, 63(1), 53-63.
- Artificial Intelligence for chemical risk assessmentWittwehr, C., Blomstedt, P., Gosling, J. P., Peltola, T., Raffael, B., Richarz, A.-N., Sienkiewicz, M., Whaley, P., Worth, A., & Whelan, M. (2020). Artificial Intelligence for chemical risk assessment. Computational Toxicology, 13.
- Tackling selection bias in sentencing data analysis: a new approach based on a scale of severityPina-Sánchez, J., & Gosling, J. P. (2020). Tackling selection bias in sentencing data analysis: a new approach based on a scale of severity. Quality \& Quantity, 54(3), 1047-1073.
- Potential of ToxCast data in the safety assessment of food chemicalsPunt, A., Firman, J., Boobis, A., Cronin, M., Gosling, J. P., Wilks, M. F., Hepburn, P. A., Thiel, A., & Fussell, K. C. (2020). Potential of ToxCast data in the safety assessment of food chemicals. Toxicological Sciences, 174(2), 326-340.
- Generation of TD50 values for carcinogenicity study dataThresher, A., Gosling, J. P., & Williams, R. (2019). Generation of TD50 values for carcinogenicity study data. Toxicology Research, 8(5), 696-703.
- Uncertainty quantification of density and stratification estimates with implications for predicting ocean dynamicsManderson, A., Rayson, M., Cripps, E., Girolami, M., Gosling, J., Hodkiewicz, M., Ivey, G., & Jones, N. (2019). Uncertainty quantification of density and stratification estimates with implications for predicting ocean dynamics. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 36(7), 1313-1330.
- The importance of mathematical modelling in chemical risk assessment and the associated quantification of uncertaintyGosling, J. P. (2019). The importance of mathematical modelling in chemical risk assessment and the associated quantification of uncertainty. Computational Toxicology, 10, 44-50.
- Emulation of vessel motion simulators for computationally efficient uncertainty quantificationAstfalck, L., Cripps, E., Gosling, J., & Milne, I. (2019). Emulation of vessel motion simulators for computationally efficient uncertainty quantification. Ocean Engineering, 172, 726-736.
- Rank pruning for dominance queries in CP-netsLaing, K., Thwaites, P. A., & Gosling, J. P. (2019). Rank pruning for dominance queries in CP-nets. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 64, 55-107.
- T lymphocyte phenotype of contact-allergic patients: experience with nickel and p-phenylenediamineWicks, K., Stretton, C., Popple, A., Beresford, L., Williams, J., Maxwell, G., Gosling, J. P., Kimber, I., & Dearman, R. J. (2019). T lymphocyte phenotype of contact-allergic patients: experience with nickel and p-phenylenediamine. Contact Dermatitis, 81(1), 43-53.
- Have The England and Wales Guidelines Affected Sentencing Severity? An Empirical Analysis Using a Scale of Severity and Time-Series AnalysesPina-Sánchez, J., Gosling, J. P., Chung, H.-I., Bourgeois, E., Geneletti, S., & Marder, I. D. (2019). Have The England and Wales Guidelines Affected Sentencing Severity? An Empirical Analysis Using a Scale of Severity and Time-Series Analyses. British Journal of Criminology, 59(4), 979-1001.
- Next generation physiologically based kinetic (NG-PBK) models in support of regulatory decision makingPaini, A., Leonard, J., Joossens, E., Bessems, J., Desalegn, A., Dorne, J., Gosling, J., Heringa, M., Klaric, M., Kliment, T., & others. (2019). Next generation physiologically based kinetic (NG-PBK) models in support of regulatory decision making. Computational Toxicology, 9, 61-72.
- Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitationDessai, S., Bhave, A., Birch, C., Conway, D., Garcia-Carreras, L., Gosling, J. P., Mittal, N., & Stainforth, D. (2018). Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7).
- Expert elicitation of directional metocean parametersAstfalck, L., Cripps, E., Gosling, J., Hodkiewicz, M., & Milne, I. (2018). Expert elicitation of directional metocean parameters. Ocean Engineering, 161, 268-276.
- Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theoryAndrade, J., & Gosling, J. (2018). Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theory. Journal of Applied Statistics, 45(16), 2981-2998.
- EURL ECVAM workshop on new generation of physiologically-based kinetic models in risk assessmentPaini, A., Joossens, E., Bessems, J., Desalegn, A., Dorne, J.-L., Gosling, J., Heringa, M., Klaric, M., Kramer, N., Loizou, G., & others. (2017). EURL ECVAM workshop on new generation of physiologically-based kinetic models in risk assessment.
- Identification of transcript regulatory patterns in cell differentiationGusnanto, A., Gosling, J. P., & Pope, C. (2017). Identification of transcript regulatory patterns in cell differentiation. Bioinformatics, 33(20), 3235-3242.
- Prediction of the effect of formulation on the toxicity of chemicalsMistry, P., Neagu, D., Sanchez-Ruiz, A., Trundle, P. R., Vessey, J. D., & Gosling, J. P. (2017). Prediction of the effect of formulation on the toxicity of chemicals. Toxicology Research, 6(1), 42-53.
- Continuous effector CD8+ T cell production in a controlled persistent infection is sustained by a proliferative intermediate populationChu, H. H., Chan, S.-W., Gosling, J. P., Blanchard, N., Tsitsiklis, A., Lythe, G., Shastri, N., Molina-París, C., & Robey, E. A. (2016). Continuous effector CD8+ T cell production in a controlled persistent infection is sustained by a proliferative intermediate population. Immunity, 45(1), 159-171.
- Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fatsTennant, D., & Gosling, J. P. (2015). Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats. Food Additives \& Contaminants: Part A, 32(9), 1397-1405.
- Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulationJohnson, J., Cui, Z., Lee, L., Gosling, J., Blyth, A., & Carslaw, K. (2015). Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulation. Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 7(1), 162-187.
- Methods for eliciting expert opinion to inform health technology assessmentGosling, J. P. (2014). Methods for eliciting expert opinion to inform health technology assessment. Vignette Commissioned by the MRC Methodology Advisory Group. Medical Research Council (MRC) and National Institure for Health Research (NIHR).
- An efficient screening method for computer experimentsBoukouvalas, A., Gosling, J. P., & Maruri-Aguilar, H. (2014). An efficient screening method for computer experiments. Technometrics, 56(4), 422-431.
- A Bayes Linear approach to weight-of-evidence risk assessment for skin allergyGosling, J. P., Hart, A., Owen, H., Davies, M., Li, J., & MacKay, C. (2013). A Bayes Linear approach to weight-of-evidence risk assessment for skin allergy. Bayesian Analysis, 8(1), 169-186.
- Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens-Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposuresBoobis, A., Flari, V., Gosling, J. P., Hart, A., Craig, P., Rushton, L., & Idahosa-Taylor, E. (2013). Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens-Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 57, 106-118.
- Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogramTruong, P. N., Heuvelink, G., & Gosling, J. P. (2012). Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram. Computers \& Geosciences, 51, 390-99.
- Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophetsAndrade, J., & Gosling, J. (2011). Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets. Journal of Applied Statistics, 38(1), 183-193.
- Quantifying Experts’ Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic DiseasesGosling, J. P., Hart, A., Mouat, D. C., Sabirovic, M., Scanlan, S., & Simmons, A. (2011). Quantifying Experts’ Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic Diseases. Risk Analysis, 32, 881-93.
- Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulationsJohnson, J., Gosling, J., & Kennedy, M. (2010). Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 141, 1838-48.
- Development of a framework for evaluation and expression of uncertainties in hazard and risk assessmentHart, A., Gosling, J. P., Boobis, A., Coggon, D., Craig, P., & Jones, D. (2010). Development of a framework for evaluation and expression of uncertainties in hazard and risk assessment. Final Report of Food Standards Agency Project, 1056.
- Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codesConti, S., Gosling, J. P., Oakley, J., & O’Hagan, A. (2009). Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. Biometrika, 96(3), 663-676.
- Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and WalesKennedy, M., Anderson, C., O’Hagan, A., Lomas, M., Woodward, I., Gosling, J. P., & Heinemeyer, A. (2008). Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 171(1), 109-135.
- Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributionsGosling, J. P., Oakley, J. E., & O’Hagan, A. (2007). Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions. Bayesian Analysis, 2(693-718).
Supervision students
Adam Stone
2S