Staff profile

Research

My research is concerned with large-scale landscape perturbations, both natural geomorphic events and intensive anthropogenic disturbances, with a particular focus on quantifying human-environment interactions within upland and mountain environments. Within this overarching theme I have two key strands to my research: (1) the multi-hazard and risk chain in mountain environments following high magnitude earthquakes, and (2) the environmental implications of intensive mineral extraction.

Research Projects

Multi-hazard and risk chain in mountain environments

Sajag-Nepal (https://www.sajag-nepal.org/) - funded by the Global Challenges Research Fund (2021-2023) 

The Sajag-Nepal project examines how to use local knowledge and new interdisciplinary science to inform better decision making and reduce the impacts of multi-hazards in Nepal. The project is grounded within long-term community-based work with rural residents and builds on experience of assessing and planning for earthquake and landslide risk with the Government of Nepal, the United Nations, and the wider humanitarian and development community. My specific role on the project is to lead the development and analysis of the first dynamic, national-scale multi-hazard inventory for Nepal, covering the full chain of earthquake- and monsoon-triggered hazards. Time series analysis of earth observation data is being used to develop automated methods of multi-hazard mapping and classification, allowing the rapid construction of multi-hazard inventories but also providing important information on failure dates and post-failure recovery trajectories, such as patterns of revegetation and surface movement.

Post-earthquake landslide hazard and risk in Nepal (https://nepal2015eq.webspace.durham.ac.uk/) - funded by UKRI-DFID SHEAR (2016-2021) 

Working with colleagues at NSET-Nepal (https://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/), this project developed out of a need to track the development of landslide hazard and risk in Nepal following the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. Through the construction of a multi-temporal landslide inventory, we have demonstrated how the landslide distribution evolved and persisted in the years following the earthquake (Kincey et al., 2021), and used these data to assess how landslide hazard and population exposure generate landslide risk nationwide in Nepal. Our modelling of changing patterns of debris flow runout from pre-existing landslides has also shown the importance of considering the role of cascading hazards in determining secondary landslide hazard and risk (Rosser et al., 2021; Kincey et al., In Revision – ESP&L; Arrell et al., In Prep).

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Anthropogeomorphology and the environmental legacies of intensive mining

Mining landscapes and environmental legacies in the North Pennines, UK (2011 – present)

Historically, unregulated metal mines represented significant anthropogenic sediment sources (Kincey et al., 2022), resulting in massive aggradation of headwater catchments and fundamental changes to river systems. My recent work in this area has involved the construction of historic sediment budgets for a 200 km2 area of the North Pennines, UK (Kincey et al., In Prep), assessment of channel planform change and aggradation along mining-affected river systems (Wishart et al., In Prep), and the use of a sediment connectivity model to quantify spatio-temporal variability in sediment source significance over a 350-year period (Kincey et al., In Prep).

Abandoned mines also represent a continuing source of erodible and highly contaminated sediments, which pose a significant risk to downstream water quality, ecology and agriculture. To address this issue, I have developed a long term (now >9 years) and ongoing monitoring programme to monitor surface change and contaminant flux at abandoned mines in the North Pennines. Initial results have shown that infrequent, high magnitude storm events are responsible for the overwhelming majority of sediment-borne contaminant flux from abandoned mines (Kincey et al, 2018; Kincey et al., In Prep).

The legacy of historic mining on sediment dynamics in Swaledale, N. Yorks - Funded by Yorkshire Geological Society (2020 – present)

In collaboration with Dr Ed Baynes (Loughborough University) and Professor Jeff Warburton (Durham University), this project is aimed at investigating the geomorphic impact of extreme rainfall in Swaledale, North Yorkshire, in July 2019, which impacted a number of historical abandoned metal mines. The research will develop understanding of how abandoned mines respond to large storm events, including how affected catchments are responding to the continued transport of legacy sediments downstream from the mine source locations.

2018 - present: Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Department of Geography, Durham University

2015 - 2019: Teaching Fellow in GIS and Physical Geography, Department of Geography, Durham University

2015 - 2017: Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Department of Geography, Durham University

2011 – 2016: PhD in Physical Geography and Archaeology, Durham University (Durham Doctoral Studentship Award)

Title: “Assessing the impact of historical metal mining on upland landscapes: a nested sediment budget approach”

2008 – 2011: Research Fellow, Institute of Archaeology and Antiquity, University of Birmingham 

Chapter in book

• Oven, K., Rana, S., Rosser, N., Basyal, G., & Kincey, M. Governing landslide risk in post-earthquake Nepal: Reflections on policy, politics and the meaning of place. In M. Hutt, M. Liechty, & S. Lotter (Eds.), Epicentre to Aftermath: Rebuilding and Remembering in the Wake of Nepal’s Earthquakes. Cambridge University Press
• Challis, K., & Kincey, M. (2013). Immersive visualisation of survey and laser scanning: the case for using computer game engines. In R. Opitz, & D. Cowley (Eds.), Interpreting Archaeological Topography: 3D Data, Visualisation and Observation. Oxbow Books

Journal Article

• Kincey, M., Rosser, N., Densmore, A., Robinson, T., Shrestha, R., Pujara, D., …Arrell, K. (2023). Modelling post-earthquake cascading hazards: Changing patterns of landslide runout following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 48(3), 537-554. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5501
• Kincey, M., Gerrard, C., & Warburton, J. (2022). Metals, mines and moorland: the changing lead mining landscapes of the North Pennines, UK, 1700-1948. Post-Medieval Archaeology, 56(1), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/00794236.2022.2058221
• Brain, M., Moya, S., Kincey, M., Tunstall, N., Petley, D., & Sepúlveda, S. (2021). Controls on post-seismic landslide behaviour in brittle rocks. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 126(9), Article e2021JF006242. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jf006242
• Rosser, N., Kincey, M., Oven, K., Densmore, A., Robinson, T., Pujara, D., …Dhital, M. (2021). Changing Significance of Landslide Hazard and Risk After The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake. Progress in disaster science, 10, Article 100159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100159
• Kincey, M. E., Rosser, N. J., Robinson, T. R., Densmore, A. L., Shrestha, R., Pujara, D. S., …Swirad, Z. M. (2021). Evolution of coseismic and post‐seismic landsliding after the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 126(3), Article e2020JF005803. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jf005803
• Kincey, M., Warburton, J., & Brewer, P. (2018). Contaminated sediment flux from eroding abandoned historical metal mines: Spatial and temporal variability in geomorphological drivers. Geomorphology, 319, 199-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.07.026
• Williams, J., Rosser, N., Kincey, M., Benjamin, J., Oven, K., Densmore, A., …Dijkstra, T. (2018). Satellite-based emergency mapping using optical imagery: experience and reflections from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, 185-205. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-185-2018
• Robinson, T., Rosser, N., Densmore, A., Williams, J., Kincey, M., Benjamin, J., & Bell, H. (2017). Rapid post-earthquake modelling of coseismic landsliding intensity and distribution for emergency response decision support. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17(9), 1521-1540. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1521-2017
• Kincey, M., Gerrard, C., & Warburton, J. (2017). Quantifying erosion of at risk archaeological sites using repeat terrestrial laser scanning. Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, 12, 405-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jasrep.2017.02.003
• Howard, A., Kincey, M., & Carey, C. (2015). Preserving the Legacy of Historic Metal-Mining Industries in the Light of the Water Framework Directive and Future Environmental Change in mainland Britain: Challenges for the Heritage Community. The Historic Environment: Policy & Practice, 6(1), 3-15. https://doi.org/10.1179/1756750514z.00000000061
• Kincey, M., Batty, L., Chapman, H., Gearey, B., Ainsworth, S., & Challis, K. (2014). Assessing the changing condition of industrial archaeological remains on Alston Moor, UK, using multisensor remote sensing. Journal of Archaeological Science, 45, 36-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2014.02.008
• Challis, K., Carey, C., Kincey, M., & Howard, A. (2011). Assessing the preservation potential of temperate, lowland alluvial sediments using airborne lidar intensity. Journal of Archaeological Science, 38(2), 301-311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2010.09.006
• Challis, K., Carey, C., Kincey, M., & Howard, A. (2011). Airborne lidar intensity and geoarchaeological prospection in river valley floors. Archaeological Prospection, 18(1), https://doi.org/10.1002/arp.398
• Challis, K., Forlin, P., & Kincey, M. (2011). A Generic Toolkit for the Visualization of Archaeological Features on Airborne LiDAR Elevation Data. Archaeological Prospection, 18(4), https://doi.org/10.1002/arp.421
• Kincey, M., & Challis, K. (2010). Monitoring fragile upland landscapes: The application of airborne lidar. Journal for Nature Conservation, 18(2), 126-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2009.06.003
• Challis, K., Kincey, M., & Howard, A. (2009). Airborne remote sensing of valley floor geoarchaeology using Daedalus ATM and CASI. Archaeological Prospection, 16(1), 17-33. https://doi.org/10.1002/arp.340
• Kincey, M., Challis, K., & Howard, A. (2008). Modelling selected implications of potential future climate change on the archaeological resource of river catchments: an application of geographical information systems. Conservation and Management of Archaeological Sites, 10(2), 113-131. https://doi.org/10.1179/175355209x435560
• Howard, A., Challis, K., Holden, J., Kincey, M., & Passmore, D. (2008). The impact of climate change on archaeological resources in Britain: a catchment scale assessment. Climatic Change, 91(3-4), 405-422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9426-9
• Challis, K., Kokalj, Z., Kincey, M., Moscrop, D., & Howard, A. (2008). Airborne lidar and historic environment records. Antiquity, 82(318), 1055-1064. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003598x00097775
• Howard, A., Brown, A., Carey, C., Challis, K., Cooper, L., Kincey, M., & Toms, P. (2008). Archaeological resource modelling in temperate river valleys: a case study from the Trent Valley, UK. Antiquity, 82(318), 1040-1054. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003598x00097763