Staff profile

• Bayesian statistics: foundations, methodology, computation and applications
• Uncertainty quantification
• Ecotoxicology: statistical methods
• Risk assessment: food safety and related environmental aspects
• Statistical methodology: exact tests, random effects models

• 2000: 'Editorial Duties': Associate editor (member of the editorial board) of the Statistician
  (2002-3) , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (2004-7), Australia and New Zealand Journal of Statistics (2008-2020)

Chapter in book

• Pressure matching for hydrocarbon reservoirs: a case in the use of Bayes linear strategies for large computer experiments (and discussion)
  
  Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A., & Smith, J. (1997). Pressure matching for hydrocarbon reservoirs: a case in the use of Bayes linear strategies for large computer experiments (and discussion). In G. et al (Ed.), Case studies in Bayesian Statistics (pp. 37-93). Springer-Verlag.
• Bayes linear strategies for matching hydrocarbon reservoir history
  
  Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A., & Smith, J. (1996). Bayes linear strategies for matching hydrocarbon reservoir history. In J. Bernardo & et al. (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics 5 (pp. 69-95). Clarendon Press.

Conference Paper

• Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects
  
  da Silva-Junior, A., Einbeck, J., & Craig, P. (2016). Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects. In J. F. Dupuy & J. Josse (Eds.), Proceedings of the 31st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. July 4-8, 2016, Rennes, France. (pp. 213-218). Statistical Modelling Society.
• Uncertainty factors in ecotoxicological risk management.
  
  Craig, P. S. (2006). Uncertainty factors in ecotoxicological risk management. Presented at 4th Edinburgh Risk Conference., Edinburgh, UK.
• Matching hydrocarbon reservoir history - a Bayes linear approach
  
  Craig, P., Smith, J., Goldstein, M., & Seheult, A. (1995). Matching hydrocarbon reservoir history - a Bayes linear approach. Presented at Third International Applied Statistics in Industry Conference.

Doctoral Thesis

• Time Series Analysis for Directional Data
  
  Craig, P. S. (1988). Time Series Analysis for Directional Data [Thesis]. Statistics, University of Dublin, Trinity College. http://www.maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/psc/thesis.pdf

Journal Article

• Retrospective cumulative dietary risk assessment of craniofacial alterations by residues of pesticides
  
  Mohimont, L., Anagnostopoulos, C., Anastassiadou, M., Castoldi, A. F., Cavelier, A., Coja, T., Craig, P., Crivellente, F., Dujardin, B., Hart, A., Hooghe, W., Jarrah, S., Machera, K., Menegola, E., Metruccio, F., & Sieke, C. (2024). Retrospective cumulative dietary risk assessment of craniofacial alterations by residues of pesticides. Reproductive Toxicology, 130, Article 108741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reprotox.2024.108741
• Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants
  
  Sinclair, T., Craig, P., & Maltby, L. L. (2024). Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants. Global Change Biology, 30(4), Article e17254. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17254
• Spatial variation in the sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors
  
  Liang, R., Sinclair, T. M., Craig, P. S., & Maltby, L. (2024). Spatial variation in the sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors. Water Research, 248, Article 120854. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2023.120854
• Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks
  
  Hoffmann, S., Aiassa, E., Angrish, M., Beausoleil, C., Bois, F., Ciccolallo, L., Craig, P., de Vries, R., Dorne, J., Druwe, I., Edwards, S., Eskes, C., Georgiadis, M., Hartung, T., Kienzler, A., Kristjansson, E., Lam, J., Martino, L., Meek, B., … Tsaioun, K. (2022). Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks. ALTEX, 39(3), 499-518. https://doi.org/10.14573/altex.2202141
• Guidance on the assessment of exposure of operators, workers, residents and bystanders in risk assessment of plant protection products
  
  Charistou, A., Coja, T., Craig, P., Hamey, P., Martin, S., Sanvido, O., Chiusolo, A., Colas, M., & Istace, F. (2022). Guidance on the assessment of exposure of operators, workers, residents and bystanders in risk assessment of plant protection products. EFSA Journal, 20(1), Article e07032. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2022.7032
• Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid
  
  Craig, P. S., Dujardin, B., Hart, A., Hernandez‐Jerez, A. F., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Kneuer, C., Ossendorp, B., Pedersen, R., Wolterink, G., & Mohimont, L. (2020). Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid. EFSA Journal, 18(4), Article e06088. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6088
• Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system
  
  Craig, P. S., Dujardin, B., Hart, A., Hernández‐Jerez, A. F., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Kneuer, C., Ossendorp, B., Pedersen, R., Wolterink, G., & Mohimont, L. (2020). Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system. EFSA Journal, 18(4), Article e06087. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6087
• Applicability of in silico tools for the prediction of dermal absorption for pesticides
  
  Kneuer, C., Charistou, A., Craig, P., Eleftheriadou, D., Engel, N., Kjaerstad, M., Krishnan, S., Laskari, V., Machera, K., Nikolopoulou, D., Pieper, C., Schoen, E., Spilioti, E., & Buist, H. (2018). Applicability of in silico tools for the prediction of dermal absorption for pesticides. EFSA Supporting Publications, 15(10), Article 1493E. https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2018.en-1493
• Fisher information under Gaussian quadrature models
  
  Marques da Silva Júnior, A. H., Einbeck, J., & Craig, P. S. (2018). Fisher information under Gaussian quadrature models. Statistica Neerlandica, 72(2), 74-89. https://doi.org/10.1111/stan.12116
• Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments
  
  Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., Noteborn, H., Ockleford, C., Ricci, A., Rychen, G., Schlatter, J. R., Silano, V., Solecki, R., Turck, D., Younes, M., Craig, P., Hart, A., Von Goetz, N., Koutsoumanis, K., … Hardy, A. (2018). Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article e05123. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123
• The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment
  
  Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., Noteborn, H., Ockleford, C., Ricci, A., Rychen, G., Schlatter, J. R., Silano, V., Solecki, R., Turck, D., Younes, M., Craig, P., Hart, A., Von Goetz, N., Koutsoumanis, K., … Hardy, A. (2018). The principles and methods behind EFSA’s Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article e05122. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122
• Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments
  
  Hardy, A., Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., Noteborn, H., Ockleford, C., Ricci, A., Rychen, G., Schlatter, J. R., Silano, V., Solecki, R., Turck, D., Benfenati, E., Chaudhry, Q. M., Craig, P., Frampton, G., … Younes, M. (2017). Guidance on the use of the weight of evidence approach in scientific assessments. EFSA Journal, 15(8), Article e04971. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4971
• Guidance on dermal absorption
  
  Buist, H., Craig, P., Dewhurst, I., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Kneuer, C., Machera, K., Pieper, C., Court Marques, D., Guillot, G., Ruffo, F., & Chiusolo, A. (2017). Guidance on dermal absorption. EFSA Journal, 15(6), Article e04873. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4873
• Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms
  
  Ockleford, C., Adriaanse, P., Berny, P., Brock, T., Duquesne, S., Grilli, S., Hernandez‐Jerez, A. F., Bennekou, S. H., Klein, M., Kuhl, T., Laskowski, R., Machera, K., Pelkonen, O., Pieper, S., Stemmer, M., Sundh, I., Teodorovic, I., Tiktak, A., Topping, C. J., … Rob, S. (2017). Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for in-soil organisms. EFSA Journal, 15(2), Article e04690. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4690
• Future needs and recommendations in the development of species sensitivity distributions: Estimating toxicity thresholds for aquatic ecological communities and assessing impacts of chemical exposures
  
  Belanger, S., Barron, M., Craig, P., Dyer, S., Galay-Burgos, M., Hamer, M., Marshall, S., Posthuma, L., Raimondo, S., & Whitehouse, P. (2016). Future needs and recommendations in the development of species sensitivity distributions: Estimating toxicity thresholds for aquatic ecological communities and assessing impacts of chemical exposures. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 13(4), 664-674. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1841
• Hierarchical Emulation: a method for modeling and comparing nested simulators
  
  Oughton, R. H., & Craig, P. S. (2016). Hierarchical Emulation: a method for modeling and comparing nested simulators. SIAM/ASA/Journal/on/Uncertainty/Quantification, 4(1), 495-519. https://doi.org/10.1137/15m1007914
• Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides
  
  Topping, C. J., Craig, P. S., de Jong, F., Klein, M., Laskowski, R., Manachini, B., Pieper, S., Smith, R., Sousa, J. P., Streissl, F., Swarowsky, K., Tiktak, A., & van der Linden, T. (2015). Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides. Science of the Total Environment, 537, 159-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.152
• Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods
  
  Aagaard, A., Brock, T., Capri, E., Duquesne, S., Filipic, M., Hernandez-Jerez, A., Hirsch-Ernst, K., Hougaard Bennekou, S., Klein, M., Kuhl, T., Laskowski, R., Liess, M., Mantovani, A., Ockleford, C., Ossendorp, B., Pickford, D., Smith, R., Sousa, P., Sundh, I., … Streissl, F. (2015). Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods. EFSA Journal, 13(2), Article 3996. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2015.3996
• Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures
  
  Boobis, A., Flari, V., Gosling, J. P., Hart, A., Craig, P., Rushton, L., & Idahosa-Taylor, E. (2013). Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens – Elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 57, 106-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2013.03.003
• Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample
  
  Boothroyd, L., Craig, P., Crossman, R., & Perrett, D. (2013). Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample. American Journal of Human Biology, 25(3), 366-369. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajhb.22378
• On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions
  
  Hickey, G., Craig, P., Luttik, R., & De Zwart, D. (2012). On the quantification of intertest variability in ecotoxicity data with application to species sensitivity distributions. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 31(8), 1903-1910. https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.1891
• Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners
  
  Hickey, G., & Craig, P. (2012). Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions : recommendations for practitioners. Risk Analysis, 32(7), 1232-1243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01728.x
• Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment
  
  Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R., & Hart, A. (2012). Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 175(1), 243-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x
• Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures
  
  Luttik, R., Hart, A., Roelofs, W., Craig, P., & Mineau, P. (2011). Variation in the level of protection afforded to birds and crustaceans exposed to different pesticides under standard risk assessment procedures. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 7(3), 459-465. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.183
• On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk.
  
  Hickey, G. L., Craig, P. S., & Hart, A. (2009). On the application of loss functions in determining assessment factors for ecological risk. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 72(2), 293-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2008.06.004
• Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics
  
  Hickey, G. L., Kefford, B. J., Dunlop, J. E., & Craig, P. S. (2008). Making Species Salinity Sensitivity Distributions Reflective of Naturally Occurring Communities: Using Rapid Testing and Bayesian Statistics. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 27(11), 2403-2411. https://doi.org/10.1897/08-079.1
• A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities
  
  Craig, P. (2008). A new reconstruction of multivariate normal orthant probabilities. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 70(1), 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00625.x
• Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators
  
  Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Rougier, J., & Seheult, A. (2001). Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(454), 717-729. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214501753168370
• Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems.
  
  Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A., & Smith, J. (1998). Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D, 47(1), 37-53. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00115
• Discrepancy between penetration depths deprived from radiographic and direct measurement of acetabular components,
  
  Craig, P., Hall, R., Siney, P., Unsworth, A., & Wroblewski, B. (1998). Discrepancy between penetration depths deprived from radiographic and direct measurement of acetabular components,. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers- Part H, 212, 57-64.
• A prospective longitudinal study of the outdoor behaviour and symptoms of photosensitive patients
  
  Craig, P., & Diffey, B. (1997). A prospective longitudinal study of the outdoor behaviour and symptoms of photosensitive patients. British Journal of Dermatology, 137, 391-394. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2133.1997.tb03744.x
• Pseudo-likelihood estimation for a class of spatial Markov chains
  
  Craig, P., & Seheult, A. (1996). Pseudo-likelihood estimation for a class of spatial Markov chains. Statistics and Computing, 6, 303-311.
• Measurement of Wear in Retrieved Acetabular Sockets
  
  Craig, P., Hall, R., Unsworth, A., Hardaker, C., Siney, P., & Wroblewski, B. (1995). Measurement of Wear in Retrieved Acetabular Sockets. Proc. Inst. Mech. Engrs. Part H, 209(4), 233-242. https://doi.org/10.1243/pime_proc_1995_209_350_02

Other (Print)

• Discussion of paper by Kennedy and O'Hagan
  
  Craig, P. (2001). Discussion of paper by Kennedy and O’Hagan (pp. 455-456). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B.
• Definition of the Minimal Erythema Dose Used for Diagnostic Phototesting
  
  Craig, P., Quinn, A., Diffey, B., & Farr, P. (1994). Definition of the Minimal Erythema Dose Used for Diagnostic Phototesting. British Journal of Dermatology.

Report

• Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013
  
  Craig, P. S. (2013). Exploring novel ways of using species sensitivity distributions to establish PNECs for industrial chemicals: Final report to Project Steering Group 3 April 2013. Statoil and Unilever.
• Consequences of Increasing the Number of Species Tested - Appendix 7 to EFSA Opinion on the Science behind the Guidance Document on Risk Assessment for Birds and Mammals.
  
  Craig, P. (2008). Consequences of Increasing the Number of Species Tested - Appendix 7 to EFSA Opinion on the Science behind the Guidance Document on Risk Assessment for Birds and Mammals. European Food Safety Authority.
• Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms
  
  Craig, P. (2006). Mathematical and statistical basis of options for risk calculations - Appendix to EFSA Opinion on possibility of lowering uncertainty factors if additional species used in assessment of acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms. European Food Safety Authority.
• Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables
  
  Barcelo Culleres, D., Black, R., Boesten, J., Boobis, A., Hardy, A., Hart, A., Koepp, H., Luttik, R., Machera, K., Maroni, M., McGregor, D., Meyer, O., Moretto, A., Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, E., Petzinger, E., Savolainen, K., Schaeffer, A., Stenström, J., Steurbaut, W., … Walters, E. (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from Commission related to the appropriate variability factor(s) to be used for acute dietary exposure assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables. European Food Safety Authority.
• Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested
  
  Barcelo Culleres, D., Black, R., Boesten, J., Boobis, A., Hardy, A., Hart, A., Koepp, H., Luttik, R., Machera, K., Maroni, M., McGregor, D., Meyer, O., Moretto, A., Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, E., Petzinger, E., Savolainen, K., Schaeffer, A., Stenström, J., Steurbaut, W., … Roelofs, W. (2005). Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant health, Plant protection products and their Residues on a request from EFSA related to the assessment of the acute and chronic risk to aquatic organisms with regard to the possibility of lowering the uncertainty factor if additional species were tested. European Food Safety Authority.