Staff profile

Current research

My main research interests are in Bayesian approaches to modelling and uncertainty quantification. I am mostly interested in the development and implementation of models and the design of emulators (statistical representations) for large complex systems such as health, climate, and population dynamics. My current research is focused on multi-model uncertainty looking at frameworks for assimilating multiple models and experts’ beliefs, the aim of these frameworks is to unify multiple uncertainty specifications and provide an accessible decision support mechanism. This approach is essential when studying systems such as health where fast and reliable tools are necessary to aid decision making or such as climate where different modeling approaches are used by experts in different areas to inform policy makers. My current collaborations involve the development of Bayesian methods and their application to a number of areas including health, engineering, societal dynamics, climate, seismology, and banking. Most of these partnerships are generating substantial outputs with current and eminent impact in the local industry and society.

• Bayesian Statistics
• Parametric Inference
• Information Theory
• Stochastic Processes

• Statistics

• 2020: Early Warning Scores(£30000.00 from )
• 2020: Intensive Care Risk Identification System(£40000.00 from )
• 2019: Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Qualification in Machine Learning Algorithms(£35066.00 from Atom Bank)
• 2019: Emergency Warning Signs Project(£3758.33 from AHSN)
• 2018: KTP - ATOM Bank(£184015.00 from Atom Bank)
• 2018: NERC Indonesia - Java Flood One(£15555.74 from Natural Environmental Research Council)
• 2017: Bayesian Optimisation of X-Ray Materials Characterisation Phase VII - Further Applications to Medical Imaging(£11154.00 from )
• 2017: Healthy New Towns - Predictive Modelling(£7456.00 from )
• 2016: Bayesian Optimisation of Xray Materials Characterisation phase V1 Applications to Health(£20000.00 from IBEX Innovations)
• 2016: Connected Health Cities(£147406.76 from Department of Health)
• 2016: KTP Atom Bank(£279172.00 from Atom Bank)
• 2016: The Intensive care risk identification system(£122850.00 from )
• 2015: Bayesian optimisation of X-ray Materials Characterisation - phase V(£10000.00 from Ibex Innovations Ltd)
• 2015: Doctoral Programs and Post-doctoral positions sponsored by CNPQ and BG E&P LTDA(£531275.00 from )
• 2015: Predictor Feasibility Study(£23810.00 from Innovate UK)
• 2013: Bayesian optimisation of X-ray materials characterisation phase III(£21526.00 from Ibex Innovations Ltd)

Authored book

• Bissell, J., Caiado, C.C.S., Curtis, S.E., Goldstein, M. & Straughan, B. (2015). Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems and Health. Wiley.

Chapter in book

• Caiado, C.C.S. (2015). Stochastic Modelling for Compartmental Systems Applied to Social Problems. In Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Bissell, J., Caiado, C.C.S., Curtis, S.E., Goldstein, M. & Straughan, B. Wiley.
• Bentley, R.A., Caiado, C.C.S. & Ormerod, P. (2015). Complexity in Spatial Dynamics: The Emergence of Homogeneity/Heterogeneity in Culture in Cities. In Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Bissell, J., Caiado, C.C.S., Curtis, S.E., Goldstein, M. & Straughan, B. Wiley.
• Caiado, C.C.S., Hickey, G.L., Grant, S.W., Goldstein, M., Markarian, G., McCollum, C. & Bridgewater, B. (2015). Heart Online Uncertainty and Stability Estimation. In Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Bissell, J., Caiado, C.C.S., Curtis, S.E., Goldstein, M. & Straughan, B. Wiley.
• Hickey, G.L., Grant, S.W., Caiado, C.C.S., Buchan, I. & Bridgewater, B. (2015). Cardiac Surgery Performance Monitoring. In Tipping Points: Modelling Social Problems an Health. Bissell, J., Caiado, C.C.S., Curtis, S.E., Goldstein, M. & Straughan, B. Wiley. 49.

Conference Paper

• Formentin, H. Nandi, Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Caiado, C., Avansi, G. & Schiozer, D. (2020), Accounting for Model Discrepancy in Uncertainty Analysis by Combining Numerical Simulation and Bayesian Emulation Techniques, 2020: ECMOR XVII. ECMOR, 1-27.
• Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila C. C. S. (2017), Efficient algorithms for checking avoiding sure loss, in Antonucci, Alessandro, Corani, Giorgio, Couso, Inés & Destercke, Sébastien eds, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 62: The Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA ’17). Lugano, Switzerland, PMLR, 241-252.
• Rathie, P.N., Caiado, C.C.S. & Swamee, P.K. (2008), New intensity functions in hydraulic repairable systems, Proceedings of National Conference on Hydraulics and Water Resources National Conference on Hydraulics and Water Resources (Hydro 2008). Jaipur, India.
• Rathie, P.N., Swamee, P.K. & Caiado, C.C.S. (2008), A two parameter skew distribution function, Proceedings of the second World Aqua Congress World Aqua Congress (WAC2008). New Delhi, India.
• Rathie, P.N. & Caiado, C.C.S. (2007), Repairable Systems in Reliability Theory, Proceedings of the VI International Conference on Operational Research for Development International Conference on Operational Research for Development (ICORD VI). Fortaleza, Brazil, Fortaleza.
• Caiado, C.C.S. & Rathie, P.N. (2007), Polynomial Coefficients and Distribution of the Sum of Discrete Uniform Variables, in Mathai, A. M., Pathan, M. A. Jose, K. K. & Jacob, Joy eds, Eighth Annual Conference of the Society of Special Functions and their Applications. Pala, India, Society for Special Functions & their Applications, Pala.

Journal Article

• Jones, Leah Ffion, Batteux, Eleonore, Bonfield, Stefanie, Bhogal, Jaskiran Kaur, Taylor, Jo, Caiado, Camila, Ramagge, Jacqui & Weston, Dale (2021). Durham University students’ experiences of asymptomatic COVID-19 testing: a qualitative study. BMJ Open 11(12):
• Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila C. S. (2021). Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for Γ-maximin, Γ-maximax and interval dominance. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 133: 95-115.
• Badham, Jennifer, Barbrook-Johnson, Pete, Caiado, Camila & Castellani, Brian (2021). Justified Stories with Agent-Based Modelling for Local COVID-19 Planning. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 24(1): 8.
• Howitt, Samuel H., Oakley, Jordan, Caiado, Camila, Goldstein, Michael, Malagon, Ignacio, McCollum, Charles & Grant, Stuart W. (2020). A Novel Patient-Specific Model for Predicting Severe Oliguria; Development and Comparison With Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes Acute Kidney Injury Classification. Critical Care Medicine 48(1): e18-e25.
• Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila (2019). Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 113: 91-105.
• Formentin, Helena Nandi, Almeida, Forlan la Rosa, Avansi, Guilherme Daniel, Maschio, Célio, Schiozer, Denis J., Caiado, Camila, Vernon, Ian & Goldstein, Michael (2019). Gaining more understanding about reservoir behavior through assimilation of breakthrough time and productivity deviation in the history matching process. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 173: 1080-1096.
• Nakharutai, Nawapon, Caiado, Camila C. S. & Troffaes, Matthias C. M. (2019). Evaluating betting odds and free coupons using desirability. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 106: 128-145.
• Li, Y., Zhang, S., Hobbs, R., Caiado, C., Sproson, A.D., Selby, D. & Rooney, A.D. (2019). Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology. Science Bulletin 64(3): 189-197.
• Ferreira, Carla, Vernon, Ian, Caiado, Camila, Formentin, Helena, Avansi, Guilherme, Goldstein, Michael & Schiozer, Denis (2019). Efficient Selection of Reservoir Model Outputs within an Emulation-Based Bayesian History Matching Uncertainty Analysis. SPE Journal OTC-29801-MS, 1-34.
• Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila C. S. (2018). Improved linear programming methods for checking avoiding sure loss. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 101: 293-310.
• Howitt, Samuel H., Grant, Stuart W., Caiado, Camila, Carlson, Eric, Kwon, Dowan, Dimarakis, Ioannis, Malagon, Ignacio & McCollum, Charles (2018). The KDIGO acute kidney injury guidelines for cardiac surgery patients in critical care: a validation study. BMC Nephrology 19(1): 149.
• Moreno, R., Avansi, G., Schiozer, D., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M. & Caiado, C. (2018). Emulation of reservoir production forecast considering variation in petrophysical properties. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 165: 711-725.
• Grant, Stuart, Venkateswaran, Rajamiyer, Malagon, Ignacio, Goldstein, Michael, McCollum, Charles, Caiado, Camila & Howitt, Samuel (2018). Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery. The Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon 66(8): 651-660.
• Ormerod, Paul & Caiado, Camila C. S. (2017). Market Structure with Interacting Consumers. Review of Behavioral Economics 4(1): 33-49.
• Tang, Q., Hobbs, R.W., Zheng, C., Biescas, B. & Caiado, C.C.S. (2016). Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of temperature and salinity structure of an internal solitary wave packet from marine seismic data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121(6): 3692-3709.
• Bentley, R.A., Brock, W.A., Caiado, C.C.S. & O'Brien, M. (2016). Evaluating reproductive decisions as discrete choices under social influence. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 371(1692): 20150154.
• Caiado, C.C.S., Brock, W.A., Bentley, R.A. & O'Brien, M.J. (2016). Fitness landscapes among many options under social influence. Journal of Theoretical Biology 405: S0022-5193(16)00014-X, 5-16.
• Caiado, C.C.S. & Goldstein, M. (2015). Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators with applications to tipping points. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 26(1-3): 123-136.
• Brock, W.A., Bentley, R.A., O'Brien, M.J. & Caiado, C.C.S. (2014). Estimating a Path through a Map of Decision Making. PLoS ONE 9(11): e111022.
• Bentley, R.A., Caiado, C.C.S. & Ormerod, P. (2014). Effects of memory on spatial heterogeneity in neutrally transmitted culture. Evolution and Human Behavior 35(4): 257-263.
• Bentley, R. A., Maddison, E. J., Ranner, P. H., Bissell, J. J., Caiado, C. C. C. S., Bhatanacharoen, P., Clark, T., Botha, M., Akinbami, F., Hollow, M., Michie, R., Huntley, B., Curtis, S. E. & Garnett, P. R. (2014). Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics. Frontiers in Environmental Science 2: 35.
• Hickey, G.L., Grant, S.W., Caiado, C.C.S., Kendall, S., Dunning, J., Poullis, M., Buchan, I. & Bridgewater, B. (2013). Dynamic prediction modeling approaches for cardiac surgery. Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes 6(6): 649-658.
• Caiado, Camila C. S., Goldstein, Michael & Hobbs, Richard W. (2012). Bayesian Strategies to Assess Uncertainty in Velocity Models. Bayesian Analysis 7(1): 211-234.

Presentation

• Nakharutai, Nawapon, Troffaes, Matthias C. M. & Caiado, Camila (2019), Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions, ISIPTA'19. Ghent.

Report

• Caiado, C.C.S. & Da-Silva, C.Q. (2006). Bayesian Inference in Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes. Department of Statistics. Brasilia, Brazil.
• Caiado, C.C.S. & Rathie, P.N. (2005). Multinomial triangle coefficient and distribution of the sum of discrete uniform variates. Department of Statistics. Brasilia, Brazil.
• Caiado, C.S. & Rathie, P.N. (2005). Entropias e Índices Caudais. PIBIC/CNPq. Brasilia, Brazil.
• Caiado, C.S. & Rathie, P.N. (2004). Birthday Problem e Generalizações (The Birthday Problem and Generalizations). PIBIC/CNPq. Brasilia, Brazil.