BUSI46N15: Scenario Thinking (ONLINE)

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• None.

• Scenario Thinking (Taught)

• To explore methods and approaches for anticipating the future
• To understand and evaluate how human judgment is modelled in scenario method
• To examine the strategic and operational implications of planning with scenarios

• The core intuitive logics scenario methodology
• Modelling judgment: overcoming framing bias and overconfidence
• Stakeholder analysis
• Evaluating the performance of options against scenarios
• Constructing a range of extreme futures
• Diagnosing whether the organizational context is appropriate for a scenario-based intervention
• Evaluating developed scenarios
• Scenario thinking versus decision analysis as ways of making decisions in the face of uncertainty about the future

Subject-specific Knowledge:

• By the end of the module, students should have:
• A critical understanding of the nature and principal concepts of scenario method
• A grounded understanding of the intuitive logics scenario method and its augmentations.
• A critical appreciation of decision making using scenarios

Subject-specific Skills:

• By the end of the module, students should:
• Be able to use the intuitive logics method to create scenarios
• Be able to develop a range of more extreme scenarios using augmentation of the core intuitive logics method
• Be able to analyse and evaluate decision options against scenarios

Key Skills:

• Effective written communication skills
• Planning, organising and time management skills
• Problem solving and analytical skills
• The ability to use initiative
• Advanced skills in the interpretation of data
• Advanced computer literacy skills

• The module is delivered via online learning, divided up into study weeks with specially produced resources within each week. Resources vary according to the learning outcomes but normally include: video content, directed reading, reflection through activities, opportunities for self-assessment and peer-to-peer learning within a tutor-facilitated discussion board. Tutors provide feedback on formative work and facilitate discussion board communication as well as being available for individual consultation as necessary (usually by email and Skype).
• The summative assessment of the module is designed to test the acquisition and articulation of knowledge and critical understanding, and skills of application and interpretation within the business context.

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