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MATH3071: DECISION THEORY III

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Type	Open
Level	3
Credits	20
Availability	Available in 2023/24
Module Cap
Location	Durham
Department	Mathematical Sciences

Prerequisites

Calculus I (Maths Hons) (MATH1081) or Calculus I (MATH1061), Probability I (MATH1597) and Linear Algebra I (Maths Hons) (MATH1091) or Linear Algebra I (MATH1071).

Corequisites

None.

Excluded Combinations of Modules

None.

Aims

To describe the basic ingredients of decision theory, for individuals and for groups, and to apply the theory to a variety ofinteresting and important problems.

Content

Introduction to decision analysis: utility.
Uncertainty.
Statistical decision theory: Bayesdecisions.
Bargaining.
Game theory.
Influence diagrams, group decisions and socialchoice.

Learning Outcomes

Subject-specific Knowledge:

By the end of the module students will: be able to solvenovel and/or complex problems in Decision Theory.
have a systematic and coherent understanding of theoreticalmathematics in the field of Decision Theory.
have acquired coherent body of knowledge of these subjectsdemonstrated through one or more of the following topic areas:Formulating decision problems and solving decision trees.
Utility, value of money, multi-attribute utility.
Use of data in decision making, statistical decisiontheory.
Sequential decision making.
Game theory, including two-person zero-sum games.
Bargaining, including Nash' theory.
Group decisions and social choice.

Subject-specific Skills:

In addition students will have specialised mathematicalskills in the following areas which can be used with minimal guidance: Modelling.

Key Skills:

Modes of Teaching, Learning and Assessment and how these contribute to the learning outcomes of the module

Lectures demonstrate what is required to be learned and theapplication of the theory to practical examples.
Assignments for self-study develop problem-solving skills andenable students to test and develop their knowledge andunderstanding.
Formatively assessed assignments provide practice in theapplication of logic and high level of rigour as well as feedback forthe students and the lecturer on students' progress.
The end-of-year examination assesses the knowledge acquiredand the ability to solve predictable and unpredictableproblems.

Teaching Methods and Learning Hours

Activity	Number	Frequency	Duration	Total
Lectures	42	2 per week for in Michaelmas and Epiphany; 2 in Easter	1 Hour	42
Problems Classes	8	Fortnightly in each of terms 1 and 2	1 Hour	8
Preparation and Reading				150
Total				200

Summative Assessment

Component: Examination		Component Weighting: 100%
Element	Length / Duration	Element Weighting	Resit Opportunity
Written examination	3 Hours	100

Formative Assessment

Eight written assignments to be assessed and returned. Other assignments are set for self-study and complete solutions are made available to students.

More information

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