October 2018 to September 2021
Flooding represents the most frequently occurring hydrometeorological hazard in Indonesia, contributing to around 31% of all disaster events with impacts in Jakarta alone costing around USD 321 million per year. Due to Java's topography, climate, dense urbanisation and inadequate infrastructure, improvements to structural flood defences alone are unlikely to prevent flooding in these areas in the future. Instead, resilience needs to be built through the combined efforts of flood management information systems and greater public awareness.
The objective of this project is to create a set of medium-term flood forecast (MRFF) tools for the urban centres of Jakarta, Bandung and Surakarta on the island of Java, Indonesia.
The project is in partnership will colleagues from The Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) and the skills and outcomes will be strongly embedded within ITB going forwards.
We plan to improve on existing work by applying a dynamic stochastic meteorological model to provide medium term flood forecasts. To overcome excessive computational times associated with flood inundation models, we plan to wrap everything up within a probabilistic emulation framework. We will also implement repeat photogrammetry surveys with drones, to capture and characterise subsidence and anthropogenic topographic changes. Focus group meetings with local flood-affected communities will be held to inform the development of internet/social media flood warning dissemination tools.
The Durham University and ITB team will collaborate with government departments such as:
These latter organisations represent local community groups who have set up their own flood warning system using real-time and historical visual observations.