The Stability of East Asia in 2021

David C. Kang is Maria Crutcher Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California, with appointments in both the School of International Relations and the Marshall School of Business. Kang is also director of the USC Korean Studies Institute. Kang’s latest book is American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the 21st Century (Cambridge University Press, 2017). He has authored four other scholarly books, and has published articles in journals such as International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and International Security. A regular consultant for U.S. government agencies and the military, Kang has also written opinion pieces in the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times, and appears regularly in media such as CNN, PBC, the BBC, and NPR. A former Fulbright Scholar, Kang received an A.B. with honors from Stanford University and his Ph.D. from Berkeley. 

Summary: East Asia in 2021 is richer, more integrated, and more stable than at any point in the last century. China has already managed a head-spinningly fast regional power transition. Countries are rapidly increasing their economic ties to China and each other. And, East Asian countries have steadily reduced their defense spending because they see little need to arm. There are numerous issues still to be resolved, but countries think most of those issues are not worth fighting over. All countries in the region have to coexist with each other – none is picking up and moving somewhere else – and countries are thus dealing with that reality and seeking diplomatic, not military solutions with each other. This East Asian reality runs counter to a largely Western narrative that views China’s rise as a threat and the region as increasingly unstable. In this talk, I explain both the stability of East Asia, and discuss potential issues that may arise in the future.